Toronto Condos Haven't Been This Affordable Since 2019
The Toronto condo market is experiencing its most significant correction in over 30 years. If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to come down, the numbers are finally moving in your favour.
The average Toronto condo just dropped to $605,000 — down 9.8% year over year. In some neighbourhoods, you're looking at averages around $384,000. Studios are selling in the $300,000s. For Toronto, that's a price point most people assumed was gone forever.
How Much Have Toronto Condo Prices Dropped in 2026?
New condo sales across the GTA fell 60% in 2025 — the lowest since 1991. There are nearly 4,000 completed condo units sitting unsold right now, up 131% from last year and five times higher than two years ago.
The GTA is sitting at 5.8 months of supply. Anything over four months is considered a buyer's market. We're deep in buyer territory.
What does this mean practically? Buyers have more negotiating power right now than they've had in years. Sellers are motivated. Conditions are being accepted. Price reductions are common.
Why Are Toronto Condo Prices Falling?
The Bank of Canada published a detailed report in February 2026 breaking down exactly why the condo market corrected. Three key factors stand out:
Immigration dropped dramatically. Net newcomers to Canada went from 1.4 million in 2023 to under 300,000. That wave of demand that was propping up the condo rental and purchase market has significantly decreased.
The investor math broke. Between 2015 and 2022, presale condo investors were seeing 40%+ gains between purchase and completion. That model no longer works. Many condos completed in the last two years are now worth less than what investors originally paid.
There's a massive supply mismatch. 60% of new condo supply consists of micro units — three rooms or fewer. But only 30% of new households actually want to live in a unit that small. Developers built what was profitable, not what the market needed.
Will Toronto Condo Prices Keep Dropping?
Here's the part that makes this market especially interesting for long-term buyers.
Pre-construction starts have crashed to 1990s levels. The pipeline of future condo supply is drying up fast. While we have a temporary oversupply right now, in three to four years, there could be another significant housing shortage in Toronto.
This creates a potential window: buying at corrected prices today, before the supply pipeline catches up and competition returns.
That said, it's important to be realistic. TD Economics is projecting another 6.5% decline this year. Inventory is still climbing. This is not a market where you buy today and see a profit next month. But for buyers thinking in five-year timelines, the fundamentals are compelling.
Should You Buy a Toronto Condo in 2026?
Consider buying if:
- You're a first-time buyer planning to live there for 5+ years
- Your rent is close to what a mortgage payment would be at current rates
- You've found a unit in a strong location near transit and employment
- You can handle the possibility of another 5-10% short-term dip
Consider waiting if:
- You're looking to flip within 1-2 years
- You're counting on immediate price appreciation
- You can't comfortably afford the carrying costs at today's rates
- You're eyeing micro units purely as an investment — that segment is oversupplied and will take the longest to recover
The Bottom Line
Toronto condos are at prices we haven't seen in seven years. This isn't about trying to time the perfect bottom — nobody can do that consistently. It's about recognizing that the market is offering buyers leverage they haven't had since before the pandemic.
For first-time buyers and long-term holders, this is the most accessible the Toronto condo market has been in years. The data supports it, the Bank of Canada explains why, and the supply pipeline suggests this window won't last forever.
If you want to explore what's available and understand what you can afford in today's market, reach out — I'm happy to walk you through the numbers for any neighbourhood in the GTA.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average condo price in Toronto in 2026?
As of early 2026, the average Toronto condo price is approximately $605,000 — down 9.8% year over year. Some neighbourhoods are averaging around $384,000, and studio units are selling in the $300,000s.
Is Toronto in a buyer's market for condos?
Yes. The GTA is sitting at 5.8 months of supply, well above the four-month threshold that defines a buyer's market. Buyers have significantly more negotiating power than they've had in the past two to three years.
Why did Toronto condo prices drop?
Three main factors drove the correction: a sharp decline in immigration (from 1.4 million net newcomers in 2023 to under 300,000), broken investor economics where presale condos lost value by completion, and an oversupply of micro units that don't match household demand. The Bank of Canada detailed these factors in their February 2026 report.
Will Toronto condo prices go back up?
Pre-construction starts have crashed to 1990s levels, meaning the future supply pipeline is drying up. While prices may continue to soften in the short term — TD Economics projects another 6.5% decline in 2026 — the reduced supply pipeline suggests a potential shortage in three to four years, which could push prices back up.
Is it a good time to buy a condo in Toronto?
For first-time buyers planning to hold for five or more years, the current market offers prices not seen since 2019 with strong negotiating leverage. For short-term investors or flippers, the timing carries more risk as prices may not have fully bottomed.
Aidan Holt is a Sales Representative with RE/MAX Metropolis Realty Inc., Brokerage, specializing in residential and commercial real estate across the Greater Toronto Area.
Sources: Bank of Canada February 2026 Condo Report, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Urbanation, TD Economics, WOWA.ca, CBC News.